State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali
Figure 4
State-space forecasts of Schistosoma haematobium consultation rate time-series for the district of Niono, Mali.
Observed Schistosoma haematobium consultation rate time-series (TS) in the district of Niono, Mali, are depicted as black lines in this composite panel while red traces correspond to contemporaneous h-month horizon forecasts; 95% prediction interval (PI) bounds are symbolized by red dots of the same color. Abscissa projections span 102 months (01/1996–06/2004) while ordinate scales represent the number of newly diagnosed (or forecasted) S. haematobium–induced terminal hematuria cases per 1000 individuals. Forecasts were generated with exponential smoothing (ES) methods, which are encapsulated within the state-space forecasting (ETS) framework (Methods). Panels A, B, C, and D correspond to 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-month horizon forecasts, respectively. These forecasts are, by definition, external predictions. Predictions were superimposed onto the original TS to allow visual prediction accuracy evaluation. This figure should be considered dynamically. As observations and forecasts became available to and from the on-line execution program, the actual graphing of forecasts (red traces) preceded that of observations (black lines) by exactly h-month horizon.
