Genital Herpes Has Played a More Important Role than Any Other Sexually Transmitted Infection in Driving HIV Prevalence in Africa
Figure 1
Time course of the HIV epidemic in Kisumu, Kenya.
Here assuming a susceptibility enhancement per-exposure cofactor of PECAcq = 4 (implying a RR = 2.1 [24]). The upper panel (A) shows HIV and HSV-2 prevalences in the presence of the two disease interaction compared to the prediction in the absence of interaction. The references for the data are discussed in Protocol S2. The middle and lower panels show the epidemiologic synergy measures of HIV and HSV-2 interaction. The middle panel (B) displays the fraction of all incident HIV infections that are directly caused by the enhanced susceptibility of HSV-2 seropositive persons to HIV acquisition (PAFSus), the fraction of all incident HIV infections that are directly caused by the enhanced HIV infectivity in dually infected persons (PAFInf), and the fraction of all incident HIV infections that are directly caused by HSV-2 biology whether due to enhanced susceptibility or enhanced infectivity (PAFSus+Inf). The lower panel (C) shows HIV and HSV-2 excess prevalences.
